WF38: Conduct Markov Analysis

Pre-requisites

• RAM Module: access to the Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) module enables Markov Analysis.
• FBD Model: a valid project with model items in a system hierarchy, RBD groups, and have failure data defined.

Detailed Descriptions (numbered steps)

1. Open the Markov Analysis Editor from the main menu under the tab 'Analyses' or from the context menu.
2. Create a Markov Analysis with the 'new' button (see Step 1), which will open a 'New Markov Analysis' dialog. Select the target model item to apply the newly created Markov Analysis to and left-click 'OK'.
3. Upon creation of the Markov Analysis, there will be two existing states of 'Normal Operation', which is the Initial State, and the "final state" of 'Total System / Component Failure'. Create more states if necessary, or continue with building the Markov Analysis. New states may not be necessary as all have been created, but Properties are to be re-defined to obtain acceptable results for the Markov Analysis.
4. Create additional states using provided template states, 'Initial', 'Operational', 'Degraded' and 'Failure', to model the transition from Initial State to Final State. Note that there can only be one Initial State.
5. Every state requires the following to be defined: Name, Type, Description and IF initial state (See Step 5). These may need to be re-defined to obtain acceptable results for the Markov Analysis.
6. Continue creating states until all have been defined, to enable completion of the Markov Analysis.
7. Create transitions between states and if new transitions are not necessary continue to define / re-define their properties.
8. Create a state transition by enabling the appropriate icon, then selecting the starting point and the ending point of that state transition.
9. Every state transition requires the enabling for transition direction and the associated duration of transition. These may need to be re-defined to obtain acceptable results for the Markov Analysis.
10. Creating transitions until all have been defined / re-defined, to continue the analysis.
11. If all states and transitions have been defined, conduct the Markov Analysis with the 'Refresh' icon and define the duration of operation for the analysis.
12. Expand the Results table to review the calculations based on the defined States and State Transitions. Toggle between the line charts and tables to better view the results.
13. Determine if results are acceptable and make any necessary changes to the analysis to achieve those results.
14. If results are acceptable, they be applied to the model item(s) that are qualify.
15. Markov Analysis has been successfully conducted and applied to all relevant model item(s). Results may be exported for further analysis or reporting.

Fields referenced in the diagram

• Define Markov State Properties: Name, Type, Description, IF Initial State
• Define State Transition Properties: Enable Direction, Duration
• Conduct Markov Analysis: Analysis Duration

Decision points

• New Markov State Required? — Yes → Create Markov State; No → All States Defined? decision.
• All States Defined? — No → loop back to New Markov State Required?; Yes → New Transition Required? decision.
• New Transition Required? — Yes → Create State Transition; No → All Transitions Defined? decision.
• All Transitions Defined? — No → loop back to New Transition Required?; Yes → Conduct Markov Analysis.
• Results Acceptable? — No → loop back to Create a Markov Analysis (re-edit states/transitions); Yes → Apply to Model Item(s).

Outputs

• Analysis Results Table: exported as a .csv file for further analysis or reporting, through the 'Export' button in the top right corner of the results table.

Screenshot walkthrough (captions/labels extracted)

Step 1: Open Markov Analysis Editor

• 'Analyses' menu: Fault Tree, Response Paths, Connection Matrix, Common Mode Analysis, Critical Item Analysis, Criticality & Reliability Editor, Technical Budget Analysis, Failure Rate Prediction, Markov Analysis (highlighted), RBD Analysis, Reliability Allocation Editor, Back-Fit RCM, Model-based RCM, Maintenance Cost Estimates.
• Context menu on model item: New (System Model, Failure Diagram, Bond Graph, Functions), Requirements, Functional Diagram, Mission Profiles, RBD Model, Maintenance Actions, Markov Analysis (highlighted), Cut/Copy/Paste, Delete.

Step 2: Create a Markov Analysis

• "Markov Analysis" tab: left nav Overview / Management. "Markov Analysis - Overview" table (Analysis/Description/Date Modified) empty, with add icon (highlighted). "Markov Analysis - Details": Name, Description fields (empty).
• "New Markov Analysis" dialog: "Select an item below that the Markov Analysis will be applied to." Filter field. Tree: Transmission, Wheel Front, Wheel Rear, Wheel Resistance Rear, Wheel Resistance Front, Power Generation > Control Unit, Diesel Engine > Air Filter, Coupling 1, Engine, Governor, Injector Pump, Lift Pump, "Primary Fuel Filter" (selected/highlighted), Secondary Fuel Filter, Fuel Tank > Inlet, Lining, Outlet; Vehicle. Buttons OK, Cancel.

Step 4: Markov State Required?

• "Markov Analysis" tab: left nav "Primary Fuel Filter Markov" (selected). Canvas: two states — "0 / Normal Operation" (blue circle, initial) connected via arrow labeled "1,000,000" to "1 / Total System/Component Failure" (red circle). "Palette": Select; "States" — Initial State ("Select the new initial state"), Operational State ("Create a new Operational State"), Degraded State ("Create a new Degraded State"), Failure State ("Create a new Failure State"); "Transitions" — Transition ("Creates a new Transition"). "Markov Analysis - Results" table (Name/Type/Initial State/Mean Proba.../Point Availa.../Point Reliabi.../Time in State/Duration of ...): Primary Fuel Filter Markov > Operational States > Normal Operation > "0 - Normal Operation" (Normal Operation, Yes, all "Not calculated"); Failed States > Total System/Component Fa... > "1 - Total System/Compor..." (Total System/Compo..., No, all "Not calculated").

Step 5: Define Markov State Properties

• Three "Properties" panels shown: "2: Degraded Operation" — Name "Degraded Operation", checkbox Initial State (unchecked), Type "Degraded Operation" (dropdown), Description (empty). "3: Normal Operation" — Name "Normal Operation", Initial State (unchecked), Type "Normal Operation", Description (empty). "1: Total System/Component Failure" — Name "Total System/Component Failure", Initial State (unchecked), Type "Total System/Component Failure" (dropdown), Description (empty).

Step 8: Create State Transition

• "*Markov Analysis" (unsaved) tab: left nav "*Primary Fuel Filter Markov". Canvas: four states — "0 / Normal Operation" (blue, selected) connected to "3 / Normal Operation" (green, being connected, cursor shown), "2 / Degraded Operation" (yellow), "1 / Total System/Component Failure" (red). "Palette": Select; States (Initial/Operational/Degraded/Failure State); Transitions — "Transition" (highlighted, "Creates a new Transition").

Step 9: Define State Transition Properties

• "*Markov Analysis" tab: canvas showing "0 / Normal Operation" and "1 / Normal Operation" states connected bidirectionally (arrows both directions labeled "1"). "Properties" panel — "0: Normal Operation ↔ 1: Normal Operation": tab Markov Link. Checkbox "Allow transition from state 0: Normal Operation to state 1: Normal Operation" (checked); "Transition from state 0 to state 1 (Hours)" slider control, value "1" (log scale 1E-2 to 1E12). Checkbox "Allow transition from state 1: Normal Operation to state 0: Normal Operation" (checked); "Transition from state 1 to state 0 (Hours)" slider, value "1".

Step 11: Conduct Markov Analysis

• "Markov Analysis" tab: canvas with four states "0/Normal Operation" → "1/Normal Operation" (edge "0.01") → "2/Degraded Operation" (edges "22", "3.53" bidirectional) → "3/Dangerous Failure" (edge "56.53", "10.6"). "Markov Analysis - Results" table (Name/Type/Initial State/Mean Probability/Point Availability/Point Reliability/Time in State/Duration of Oper...): Primary Fuel Filter Markov > Operational States > Normal Operation > 0-Normal Operation (Yes) / 1-Normal Operation (No); Degraded Operation > 2-Degraded Operation (No); Failed States > Dangerous Failure > 3-Dangerous Failure (No) — all "Not calculated" prior to running.
• "Markov Analysis" dialog: "Enter the duration for the Markov Analysis (Hours)" Duration "125.66". Buttons OK, Cancel.

Step 12: Review Results

• "Markov Analysis - Results" table (calculated): Primary Fuel Filter Markov (Mean Probability, Point Availability 0.9639418, Point Reliability 0.2581526); Operational States (0.9666774, 0.9639418, 0.2581526); Normal Operation (0.8635737, 0.8556649, 0.2268866) > 0-Normal Operation (7.957982E-5, 0.0, 0.0, Time in State 0.01) / 1-Normal Operation (0.8634941, 0.8556649, 0.2268866, 108.51); Degraded Operation (0.1031038, 0.1082769, 3.126599E-2) > 2-Degraded Operation (same, 12.96); Failed States > Dangerous Failure (3.332256E-2, 3.605824E-2, 0.7418474) > 3-Dangerous Failure (same, 4.19); Duration of Oper... 125.66 throughout.
• Line chart view: "Type" radio Availability/Reliability (selected); "States" radio Individual (selected)/Combined. Chart: Probability vs Time [Hours] (0 to 125.66) showing three curves (blue rising ~0.75, orange declining from 1.0 to ~0.2, green low ~0.05-0.1 rising slightly). "Name" tree: Primary Fuel Filter Markov (checked) > Operational States > Normal Operation > 0-Normal Operation, 1-Normal Operation; Degraded Operation > 2-Degraded Operation; Failed States > Dangerous Failure > 3-Dangerous Failure (all checked).

Step 14: Apply To Model Item(s)

• "Markov Analysis - Overview" table: "Primary Fuel Filter Markov" row, Date Modified "Mon Mar 23 15:19:56 AEDT 2026". Add/open/copy/delete/apply icons (apply icon highlighted).
• "Markov Target Items" dialog: "Select one or more items below that the Markov Analysis will apply to." Filter field. Tree: Differential, Driveshaft, Half Shaft Front, Half Shaft Rear, Planetary Geabox Front, Planetary Gearbox Rear, Transmission, Wheel Front, Wheel Rear, Wheel Resistance Rear, Wheel Resistane Front; Power Generation > Control Unit, Diesel Engine > "Air Filter" (checked), Coupling 1, Engine, Governor, Injector Pump, Lift Pump, "Primary Fuel Filter" (checked/highlighted), "Secondary Fuel Filter" (checked); Fuel Tank. Buttons OK, Cancel.
• Second "Markov Analysis - Overview" table (expanded): "Primary Fuel Filter Markov" > "Air Filter" (Markov is active), "Primary Fuel Filter" (Markov is active), "Secondary Fuel Filter" (Markov is active).